Post by The Ghost of Swo on Apr 14, 2014 12:09:39 GMT -5
To start out, I hope you are all mature enough that I can grade your draft and have you not get upset if I give you a bad grade. I will be significantly harsher than Jordan. Jordan gave out no grades of C or lower last year, which in my opinion makes no sense. In my rankings, a grade of B is really impressive. A “C” grade is average, but that’s not a bad thing, as that means you are passing. Also, like Jordan I think it’s probably easier to get a higher grade with less picks. I will discount your grade more if you fuck up, than if you made a couple good picks. There might not be any “A” grades in a given year, because an “A” grade is a near perfect draft and even though I think very highly of myself even I can’t achieve that. I did grade them in order that I like them, so if you are a C+ but the next grade is a B-, it is probably closer than the difference in grade indicates.
I also will not congratulate you on a draft based solely on draft position. The example is the Giants, while they got two great prospects, they didn’t really work for those picks. I value a pick that nets a player who should have been drafted much earlier than he was, because that represents a better value. Picking Bryant 1.1 represents no value because he was clearly the best player in the draft. As a result the grades won’t correspond to which teams drafted the best players, it will more closely align with which team I think received the most value out of their draft position. To me that’s a more meaningful exercise. It’s not difficult to look at the Giants and congratulate them on two of the best players available.
Because of the nature of this task I will probably be able to include more information on teams that didn’t make a lot of picks, because I can more easily look up 3-4 players than I can write up 10 players. Unfortunately, my knowledge base on prospects isn’t extensive enough to be familiar with every player drafted. It’s also important to remember that I’m an idiot and have no clue what I’m doing. So if I give you a bad grade, you probably did great. As you know this is a really difficult task to accomplish and I’m far from an expert at this sort of thing, but without further ado, here are my musings on the draft that took place seemingly 6 months ago.
Hope you got good value via trade (No players selected)
MLW (lost a pick to COL for trading away a pick twice)
NYM
Now we move on to team's that actually drafted players.
D Phillies 2.10 Karsten Whitson; 3.4 Stephen Gonzales; 3.32 Clinton Hollon; 4.10 Rob Zastryzny; 4.12 Ryan Eades
The Phillies are in the middle of a rebuild and I wasn’t a big fan of their strategy moving back in the draft. They had a top pick (10 overall) and I think they would be better suited to have made that pick. That said, he traded it to me, so I’m pretty psyched about that and it’s pretty hypocritical to criticize him for trading picks to me. Gonzales is probably the most interesting of the group of pitchers he grabbed. HS pitcher selected in 2013, he needs to throw more innings, which will happen with time. Eades is a good risk in the 4th, college pitcher with a low floor and maybe a bit of upside if the Twins can figure out how to help his stuff play up. Hollon is a huge risk. There was a tear in his UCL and I haven’t seen anything on whether it is fixed or not. He apparently has a first round arm, but the concerns with his signability and health scared some people away. A good mix of pitchers but I don’t think any of them are particularly exciting. Obviously we missed something on Whitson. He did not sign with the Nationals and thus was ineligible for the draft. Even still, it’s not a good pick. Whitson had shoulder issues that prevented him from pitching in 2013 and he took a pretty big step back between his freshman and sophomore years at UF. If Karsten Whitson had signed, I’d consider that the worst pick in the draft. I may be overrating that pick’s importance as the other players weren’t bad picks, but they also weren’t spectacular.
D Padres – Pick 1.29 Daniel Palka.
I feel for the Padres, I know they had a rash of personal things he was dealing with this offseason and I presume he wasn’t able to do his due diligence for the draft this year. White Kevin traded away most of his picks and the only one he did make was not very good. Daniel Palka was selected with pick 1.29. He was selected in the third round of the 2013 draft, so from that perspective a lot of value was lost here, unless the MLB missed on a guy pretty bad. Of course Palka is a college hitter with power and should move quickly, but I doubt he has the tools necessary to be a force in the lineup. Given the players he could have taken here this is one of the worst picks in the draft. I’ve also seen him go in a couple other leagues and there’s a non-zero amount of noise about him elsewhere, so White Kevin is not alone in his praise of Palka. White Kevin’s team is in good position otherwise, so who cares. I think what strikes me most about this is Palka reminds me of a pick I made 3-4 years ago, Rick Poythresss. Poythress was a big college 1B from the SEC with power and supposedly very polished. That pick was doomed from the beginning, and that’s certainly affected my thinking on Palka.
C- Dodgers Every other player drafted that I didn’t list
165 players were drafted in this draft. The Dodgers took 13.9% of those players, which is quite impressive. The Dodgers fixed a glaring need on their team, prospect depth. But at what cost. They seemed to give up a lot of value to acquire all those picks, and while I don’t’ normally concern myself with value gained or lost in trades, when evaluating a draft, in this case I think it bears mentioning. Besides that, there were a number of picks that made no sense by the Dodgers. Michael Fish shouldn’t have been drafted, sure his numbers are pretty, but he’s a college senior who destroyed short-season ball. On average he was 3-4 years older than his “peers.” I like the McKinney and Tellez picks. There’s also assorted other talent. Part of the problem for me is that the Dodgers made so many picks, it’s difficult to arrive at a final tally of how many were good picks and how many weren’t good. He took a number of prospects who are just barely old enough to drive, and while that’s not a bad strategy I think he took most of them too early in the draft. For example Rafael Devers was taken in the fifth round, and he was one of the top rated IFAs (in juxtaposition, the Nationals took Eloy Jimenez, he of the 2.3M bonus, in the second round, but I’ll get to that later). Since Devers was considered by most the third best International signing, if you draft a different 16-17 year old a round or two ahead of him, I am of the opinion you reached. Hopefully at least one of these guys actually makes it stateside and makes some noise. I’d be curious to see some statistics on how many of the top 20 International FA in a given year ever make it to full season ball, not even the majors just full season minor league ball. I drafted Nick Ciuffo in another league so I can’t bash it too much, but the danger of HS catchers is well known. Luckily Nick has the time to wait it out as his window is pretty far in the future. But he’s now got a very deep roster of minor leaguers from which to rely on. Let’s see if the shotgun approach works.
C Tigers - 2.31 Hunter Green; 4.14 Mark Sappington; 5.6 Danny Santana
In terms of value I probably can’t fault the Dingo for taking Hunter Green at the end of the second, but he doesn’t excite me at all as a prospect, as a color I think he’s fantastic (particularly when mixed with gold). I am of the belief that the Angels are incapable of developing pitching, and as a result I will discount both Green and Sappington. It’s possible they prove me wrong, but neither of these two scare me. I like Danny Santana in the fifth, looks like a solid MI prospect. Probably ends up as a utility man, but maybe he turns into a second division starter. And as Black Kevin has mentioned ad nauseum, if you are getting ABs in this league you need to be owned.
C Cardinals 1.34 Jonathan Crawford; 2.2 Christian Arroyo; 2.27 Jason Hursh; 4.1 Josh Hart; 5.23 Cody Reed; 5.27 Andrew Church
This draft answers the question what happens when you just draft the highest player picked in the Rule 4 draft, when the draft pool is considerably larger than just those players. Most of these picks are borderline defensible, but I wouldn’t actually make any of these picks. Crawford and Arroyo were both first round picks, so they have talent. I have also seen some good reports on Church. I sure hope one of these guys pan out reasonably well, for the Cardinals sake. Luckily I think we have a GM here for a while who can erase any problems this draft causes. Really all these guys have talent, they also all have holes, which is why they were available, but still.
C Nationals – 1.22 Edwin Escobar; 1.32 Jimmy Nelson; 2.23 Eloy Jimenez; 4.4 Reymin Guduan; 4.6 Gleybar Torres; 5.14 Michael Taylor
I’ll start with Eloy Jimenez. Maybe Cork really liked him, but to take a 16-17 year old that early is a mistake in my opinion and since I’m ranking things I get to dock his grade for that. You needn’t look further than his other draft pick Gleyber Torres for evidence of this. Torres was drafted approximately 50 picks after Jimenez and Torres was the 2nd best International FA. I don’t think there’s that much difference in value between the two and based on the signing bonus each received, apparently the Cubs agree. That said I was a big fan of Escobar and Nelson. Nelson is the best bet of any player in this draft to provide a lot of fantasy value in 2014. I liked Escobar and was hoping I could grab him late in the first, but c’est la vie. Michael Taylor has been floundering in AAA for a couple of years now, he had a good spring, and maybe he’ll get a decent shot at some playing time. He isn’t an impact player but he could be a good bench bat. I was able to find no information on Reymin Guduan outside of his b-r.com page, which isn’t that illuminating.
C+ Red Sox – Pick 3.18 – Joan Gregorio; Pick 4.26 – Ty Blach
The Red Sox traded away most of their picks, grabbing a couple of pitchers late in the draft. Joan Gregorio is a giant (literally he plays for the Giants and he’s 6ft 7) and has big stuff. He’s been able to limit walks nicely and strikeout a good number. I tend to think he is a bullpen arm in the long run, with basically no justification for that position besides a gut feeling. Ty Blach is a college pitcher with a low floor. His ceiling is probably a 4th or 5th starter. If a franchise can develop such a player it’s the Giants, who have a good track record developing pitchers.
C+ Rockies 1.20 Trey Ball; 2.20 Michael Lorenzen; 3.19 Manuel Margot; 3.20 Jake Johansen; 4.20 Riley Unroe; 5.20 Jeremy Kivel
Riley Unroe was a supplemental pick and Kyle got him in the fourth round, that’s the epitome of taking what the draft gives you. Now I’m not sure if Riley Unroe is going to be any good, but it was still a decent pick. Manuel Margot has tremendous upside and a broad base of skills to build on. Trey Ball is the hardest for me to grade. I don’t like two-way pros, I think it takes too long for them to develop (see Casey Kelly). I also think he is a pitcher and should focus there, any time he spends not pitching is time wasted. But those things aside, he’s got good upside. Michael Lorenzen is another college pitcher that the Reds love, and I was at least a moderate fan of.
C+ Marlins 1.21 Ryne Stanek; 2.9 Ian Clarkin; 3.8 Aaron Blair; 4.9 Andrew Thurman; 5.9 Trevor Williams
The Marlins grabbed 5 pitchers with their five picks. I didn’t like Ryne Stanek, but he made sense where he was drafted. I am a big fan of Ian Clarkin and Aaron Blair and think they are very good picks. I know literally nothing about the other two.
C+ As 1.4 Colin Moran; 2.4 Austin Wilson; 3.3 Brandon Dixon; 4.25 Kean Wong; 4.29Daniel Slania; 5.4 Buck Farmer
So I think I either called or texted Ty with glee when I saw the As took Colin Moran, because I knew it guaranteed me one of Clint Frazier or Kohl Stewart, which was my dream scenario. Generally, it’s not good when the teams drafting after you are happy when you announce your pick (maybe I’m wrong and not everyone else was happy that Moran was taken at four, the Marlins took him at 6, so it’s not crazy to think he’s the fourth best hitter in the draft). Now that doesn’t mean Bird made a bad pick, it’s just that he went against what I think the consensus was. Hopefully, for him, he’ll be vindicated, but until then his draft grade will suffer. I like Austin Wilson a fair amount. I think the Mariners are a bad organization for him, because they seem to have trouble developing hitters with patience. He needs a bit of work, but in terms of power/speed combo not many can top Wilson. Kean Wong is the younger brother of Kolten Wong of Cardinals fame. He is bigger and stronger, but not as fast. He’ll probably be a utility infielder long term, especially if he shows the ability to play up the middle, but he’s a long ways off and any projections are really tough. I have no clue who Dixon, or Slania are, and their b-r.com don’t excite me, although neither has enough of a reputation to make any real conclusions. I really liked the Fuck Barmer pick. Hehehe.
C+ Cubs – 1.35 Eric Jagielo; 2.25 Chris Taylor; 5.12 Josh Zeid; 5.21 Reydel Medina; 5.25 Ronny Rodriguez; 5.29 Jacob Scavusso; 5.30 Jordan Patterson
The Cubs took their dentist’s son’s cousin or something. I’m pretty sure that Scott was offered some sort of discount on his next cavity search and got confused by the phrasing (hint, it’s not the kind of cavity search you like). Anyways, Eric Jagielo is a 3B, the Yankees 3B is an idiot, suspended, and 40ish, I’m not a mathematician but it seems the Yankees wanted a college hitter who could play 3B soon. Jagielo fits that mold and is solid if unspectacular. I don’t think Jagielo ever hits enough and thus I didn’t have a first round grade on him, while he did fall to the supplemental round, I still thought it was early for him. Chris Taylor is a good MI prospect, but in a crowded system with an even murkier outlook on the ML team, I’m not sure where he fits long term. The Cubs opted for some long shots at the end of the draft, of which two bear mentioning. Scavusso raked in the Pioneer league last year, but the Pioneer League is akin to moon mode on Triple Play 1999. Still he’s an interesting prospect and has been getting a fair amount of pub this offseason, wouldn’t be a bad idea to bet on him as a breakout candidate. Ronny Rodriguez is a MI prospect who keeps getting past by other MI prospects in the Indians system, but has the tools to be a solid starter at 2B.
C+ Reds – 1.24 Lewis Thorpe; 2.24 Robbie Ray; 3.2 Tim Cooney; 4.33 Aaron West; 5.18 Jeremy Jeffress; 5.34 Sicnarf Loopstok
As I might have mentioned I kind of wanted Lewis Thorpe. I thought he’d fall to the end of the first, but even at 24 I think this was a really good pick. There’s a lot of risk with Thorpe, he’s an unknown quantity in that he’s Australian, but LHP who throw gas are generally valuable. I wish I could keep track of how many people have owned Jeffress in this league, I know the Mets, Red Sox, and I have all owned him at various times. Hard to believe he isn’t at 50 IP yet. What a waste of talent, sorry to digress /soapbox. The Reds won the draft in that they grabbed the minor league player name of the year winner. While I disagree with the decision that he has the best minor league name, I will respect the award. I have no clue what I think about Robbie Ray. I think I might like him, but something in my gut tells my brain to STFU (pretty useless comment, but if you were coming here for thoughtful analysis that’s your fault). Tim Cooney had a pretty successful season in AA and he’s LH, so he’s got that going for him. Reports on velocity are scarce and varied, but he is allergic to giving up HR and has pretty damn good control, so worst case he’s a LOOGY. John Sickels labeled West as a sleeper last year, it didn’t work out great, but there’s at least some reason to think he can be a good pitcher. Without truly understanding the problem he probably needs to work on his command as he’s a bit too hittable at this point. As much as I like the Thorpe picks, the rest of the lot is very forgettable and that’s why the grade is a bit lower.
B- Orioles 1.14 Dominic Smith; 1.31 Ryan McMahon; 1.33 Tim Anderson; 3.26 Jacob May; 4.27 Abiatel Avelino
So I own Dominic Smith in another league, so maybe it’s my fondness for self-deprecation, but I’m not a fan of him. I question his ability to hit for enough power to justify his position. He didn’t look as advanced as he was supposed to be in his short sample either. I think there was a fair amount of value lost with that pick. For what it’s worth I grabbed him 10th in a draft, which took place in July, of only players taken in the 2013 Rule 4 draft. I was fine with the pick then, but as time has passed I have decided I was an idiot (which happens a lot). I also don’t like Tim Anderson, but I can’t really fault Patrick for taking him at 33. Ryan McMahon at 31 represents a fair amount of value. He’s a pretty intriguing bat and I think he will develop now that he can stop with that football foolishness. Patrick basically alternated picks that I like with those that I don’t like, I don’t like the May pick because he’s a White Sox prospect which means he won’t develop (LOGIC FTW!), and I like Avelino because he’s a SS who can pick it. While we don’t reward good defense (much to my disdain) good defense gives you more chances to prove you can hit and might even give you a ML job, which means COUNTING STATS! He’s a ways off but for a fifth round pick you can do worse.
B-Blue Jays – 1.18 Sean Manaea; 3.27 Kevin Siegrist; 3.28 Daniel Webb; 4.16 Chia-Jen Lo; 4.17 Brian Flynn
So if you haven’t noticed the Blue Jays have one of the best farm systems in this league, they are also on the short list of legitimate title contenders. Needless to say the Blue Jays have a lot going their way. I was a little disappointed with this draft, but to be fair I see exactly what the BJs wanted to do here. They grabbed an elite talent in Manaea, and then used their mid round and late round picks to grab relievers that will be really cheap. Manaea was supposedly a top 15 pick or something, but then had injury concerns. While a hip isn’t an arm injury, it’s not something I brush off. If a hip injury can end Bo Jackson’s career I assume Sean Manaea is dead (although he is Samoan, so maybe he’ll survive). Yes I realize the injury isn’t even close to the same, I’m being hilarious again. As to the relievers, Siegrist is in a crowded and ridiculously talented Cardinals pen, and who knows how much he’ll be used, although he did throw 40 innings last year, and if he does that again with starting the year on the roster, he’ll be valuable). Webb is a potential closer and was one of the better picks in the draft, he was actually a guy I was going to grab (I probably should have taken him instead of Shae Simmons). Chia-Jen Lo closed a bit last year and was horrible, but SSS applies. Brian Flynn was grabbed late. I’m not sure what to think of him. He has good stuff, but struggles to dominate. He is probably a 4th starter. Jordan clearly wanted to grab as many assets that he could employ this year towards a championship run, Flynn fit that and so do the trio of relievers. It was a solid but boring draft. This grade bumps up a full letter grade if Webb actually closes on a consistent basis.
B- Diamondbacks Pick 1.12 Hunter Dozier; 2.19 Aaron Judge
I don’t like Hunter Dozier where he was drafted. I thought he fit better in the mid to late teens, and for that I will dock the Dbacks. He has a highish floor, but I worry about his ability to make contact. I think he will probably struggle against breaking pitches at higher levels. He was fantastic in his pro debut, so maybe I’m wrong. Tyler must hope that he can maintain his walk rate as he climbs the ladder. The reason the Dbacks get a B-, is because I love Aaron Judge. I wanted to pick him, but didn’t. I don’t know if he can be Giancarlo Stanton, but he’s as close of a physical comp as I’ve seen in terms of size and athleticism (I don’t think he has Stanton’s offensive ceiling, but few do). Thought he would go before Jagielo in our draft. He has really good athleticism for his size (or most other sizes) and while in-game power is lacking thus far, his raw power is off the charts.
B- Twins – 1.26 JP Crawford; 2.22 Dylan Cozens; 2.26 Chace Sisco; 3.25 Emerson Jimenez; 4.2 Dustin Peterson; 5.26 Akeem Bostick
We all know Mike is a jerk and won’t trade me players I want even when I am being completely reasonable. So I’m going to use this as time to show why I’m better than him. He took Chance Sisco, I took Michael Ohlman. Ohlman is better and was drafted 2 rounds later. He drafted Emerson Jimenez, I presume because I already has Rosell Herrera. Nana Nana Boo Boo. Seriously though, I liked Mike’s draft, which isn’t surprising as he is always well prepared. I liked JP Crawford, who I think was a victim of being so overrated early on that he became underrated. I think he projects well as an up the middle player, the comparisons to his cousin are apparent with his moderate power and great speed. Dylan Cozens is a big risk/reward pick. He is gigantic and if he makes contact it goes a long ways. The track records with such players is really poor though, and I’m not crazy about him. I am really interested in Dustin Peterson. He apparently has more defensive chops, even though he won’t stick as SS, which puts less pressure on his bat making it easier for him to make the majors. He has a good swing, I think he’s got a good chance as a MI, and given he was a fourth round pick that’s great value. Akeem Bostick is a Rangers pitcher who is really young and has all those things you like in a young kid, projectable body, good fastball blah blah blah.
B- Yankees – Picks 1.8 – DJ Peterson; Pick 2.8 Kevin Ziomek
I liked the Yankees draft a fair amount. To me outside of Kris Bryant, Peterson was the best college bat available, although Ervin is rising in my mind and its close between those two (ultimately I like Peterson’s bat better, I like all the other stuff Ervin can do and overall he’s the better prospect). The Yankees certainly could have taken a player with a bit more upside at 8, but knowing Matt that’s not his style. He wants to win and doesn’t want to wait for an 18y old HS kid to develop. I don’t know a lot about Ziomek, but from what I’ve read he seems to have a very low floor. He has a good fastball, although it’s a bit straight. Again a good college pitcher who should move quickly and has a solid floor. Plus he’s left handed, so he’ll have endless chances to prove he can be useful.
B-Giants – 1.1 Kris Bryant; 1.3 Mark Appel
I really want to rate this draft lower than a B- because neither pick was impressive, the draft slot was impressive. But at the end of the day the Giants got two elite prospects and that’s a good day. Kris Bryant is the truth, and while I question Mark Appel’s upside I still think he will be incredibly valuable, although admittedly I would have traded the third pick, because I know I would have had to pick Appel and I’d rather have other players. I’m sure this grade will upset the most people, but I hate reading draft reviews where they give the highest grade to the teams that draft the highest, because it’s not a representation of the value received in the draft. If I were to grade each team by how much talent they got in the draft, the Giants would probably be an A- (getting the minus distinction only because of the lack of depth in their draft). This isn’t a slight against the Giants, they literally couldn’t have received a higher grade than this in my opinion with this set of picks. Adkins did a perfect job of drafting.
B- Indians – 1.17 Reese McGuire; 2.17 Teddy Stankiewicz; 2.21 Tyler ONeill; 3.16 Drew Ward; 5.17 Jose Herrera
The most interesting thing I learned this year about a prospect is that Teddy Stankiewicz doesn’t have a pectoral muscle. I can’t figure out if that’s weirder than R.A. Dickey not having a UCL or not, but it’s pretty fucking odd. I have no clue what that means for his long term prospects, he’s been able to get to this point without a pectoral muscle why should he need one going forward. Reese McGuire was probably the best HS catcher available in this draft and the Indians took him early. I have mentioned numerous times I’m not a fan of HS catchers, because it takes forever for them to develop. I think it was a bit early for McGuire but reasonable minds can disagree, as he should be ready faster than the other catchers taken. I also think offensively he profiles better than Ciuffo, although not quite as good as Denney (but Denney probably isn’t a catcher so it’s not a fair comparison). I was a big fan of Tyler O’Neill, and if the comps to fellow Canuck Brett Lawrie hold true the Indians will be really happy. Drew Ward has some serious power and is a big dude with enough athleticism to make him an intriguing player. He’s definitely a guy to watch, I loved what he did in the GCL, but SSS applies. I’m guessing the Jose Herrera he drafted is the Angels 3B prospect, maybe he turns into something valuable but it seems like there were better choices than a 20 year old who was pretty horrible in the Dominican Summer League, but I’m not going to knock any pick in the fifth round too hard, it’s a crap shoot and you pull the trigger on the guy you like.
B White Sox – 1.5 Philip Ervin; 2.5 Travis Demeritte; 3.17 Steven Souza; 3.33 Oscar Mercado; 4.5 Ryon Healy; 4.18 Kyle Crocket; 5.5 Cole Wiper 5.24 Ivan Wilson
Graham brought some knowledge from how the High Heat draft played out and decided that he couldn’t wait on Ervin and took him fifth. I think that’s a bit early and I don’t see the upside some other people do in Ervin, but he has a good power/speed thing going for him. There’s a big difference between a guy who hits 10HR and steal 15 bags and a 20/20 guy. If he’s the first guy, this is a bad pick. If he’s the second it’s a great pick. I’m not sure yet, he did crush his debut though so maybe he’s a 20/20 threat. Travis Demeritte has all the tools and unlike most Rangers prospects, Travis is aware of the existence of the concept of a strikezone. If he develops some power and stays up the middle he’s another great pick. I don’t see a lot in Mercado, as he looks to be more glove than bat, but if he is a starter in MLB, he is valuable. Steven Souza is already up to the ML level with the Nationals, mostly due to Zimmerman’s injury. We’ll see how he comports himself.
B Angels – 1.23 Hunter Renfroe; 1.30 Chris Anderson; 4.32 Jacoby Jones
With only three picks, the Angels made out pretty well. This is John’s first go at running a club in our league, but he’s been following the Barnstormers and assisting there. I know he was really excited to actually participate in the draft this year (much disagreement between father and son in regards to the usefulness of actually keeping draft picks). To me this was a perfectly average draft class. John didn’t fuck things up by over-thinking. He took Renfroe when he fell to him, he traded to get back into the first to grab a pitcher that I think has a very low floor and a higher ceiling than he’s being given credit for, and grabbed a toolsy MI prospect in the fourth round. . There’s some players I personally like better than Renfroe at 23, but he definitely fit in that area. Chris Anderson is a guy I really liked because I think he is undervalued. I like his pitch mix and his size. I think he has #2 potential but he probably settles into a #3 role. Honestly, he reminds me of regular season Jon Lester (not post-season Jon Lester, who is clearly a different pitcher). Worst case he has a big fastball and profiles as a late inning reliever, but I think his body lends itself to throwing 200 innings a year (as much a pitcher can do that in modern baseball) Jacoby Jones is a great returner and a decent #2 WR. I like his ability to stretch the field and allow the TEs room to roam in the middle. Good value, but not as good in a baseball league.
B Astros 1.7 Austin Meadows, 2.7 Severino Gonzalez; 3.6 Mac Williamson; 4.3 Raul Alcantara; 4.7 Alex Yarbrough; 4.8 Zack Jones; 5.7 Chase DeJong
So it shouldn’t surprise a lot of people that Ty and I talk a lot about baseball. One of the topics was whether I would take Frazier or Meadows if they both fell to me. Ty, if I remember correctly, seemed a bit incredulous in response to my query. He felt Frazier was significantly the better prospect, I assume given his HR potential. Ultimately, that’s what swayed me as well. I think Frazier ceiling is too tantalizing. But I very well might regret taking him over Meadows and wonder if John would have taken Frazier in my spot (or to put it another way, would he trade Meadows for Frazier straight up). I really like Severino Gonzalez, I think he was the best Severino in this draft, mostly because I think he has a clear spot in the Phillies rotation in 2015 and should excel as a #3-4. Raul Alcantara is another mid rotation starter, this time in the Athletics system. I’m not crazy about him as he doesn’t miss enough bats, but so long as he limits walks and generates ground balls he might be a solid innings eater. Mac Williamson has great power and a great amount of swing and miss going on. He did great in the CAL league, but that’s not difficult to do and he was a bit old. To me there’s more noise regarding him than his status deserves, but he’s still a solid prospect.
B- Rangers 1.19 Marco Gonzalez; 2.3 Rob Kaminsky; 2.30 Jose Martinez; 3.5 Justin Williams; 3.7 Ben Lively; 3.9 Corey Knebel; 3.22 Daniel Fields; 4.21 Dawel Lugo; 5.3 Wendell Rijo; 5.16 Fernando Romero; 5.22 Sergio Alcantara
I’m not crazy about Marco Gonzalez or Rob Kaminsky as players. However, they get a bit of a bump because it seems lately whatever the Cardinals draft turns to gold. I really liked Jose Martinez and was disappointed to see him go. Justin Williams is a guy overlooked and then later in the draft wanted to get, and was really disappointed he was gone. He’s a big dude who displayed good contact in his debut, if he can tap into his raw power in games, he’ll be a highly regarded prospect, especially If he can stick in the OF. Ben Lively was one of my favorite college arms in the draft, based on where I thought he’d go in the draft, which was right about where he was picked. I really like his stuff and think he is going to surprise some people this year. The Rangers took some fliers late in the draft, most notably Dawel Lugo. He has talent for days and had a pretty impressive debut statistically, but he has serious strike zone issues that will need to be cleared up if he’s going to be successful moving forward. He’s one of the players that was heavily touted this offseason. In a couple of years we might look at this and ask how he fell to the late fourth, although I think it’s more likely we ask who the hell is Dawel Lugo.
B Pirates 1.15 Alex Gonzalez; 2.15 Bobby Wahl; 3.24 Derek Law 4.31 Yeyson Yrizarri, 5.15 Jose Virgilio Almonte; 5.33 Christian Vazquez.
If Kohl Stewart was the best pick of the draft, Christian Vazquez with the second to last pick of the draft is the second best pick. Make no mistake Christian Vazquez isn’t going to be an offensive juggernaut, nor is he likely to be a top 10 player at his position. But given where he was drafted and the likelihood that he carves out a niche as, at worst, a backup catcher and his offensive skillset, I love this pick. I was also really big on Alex Gonzalez and Bobby Wahl, both were very good picks. It might have been a bit early for the man they call Chi Chi, but I think it was warranted. Derek Law looks like a good bet to be a middle reliever, so I’m not crazy about that pick, given where it was made. However, if he can become a late inning guy or a closer it will look a lot better. I know nothing else about the other two players, except Yrizarri is a MI in the Rangers system, which given past results means he’ll be a top 100 prospect in a few years. Overall a very solid draft.
B Rays 3.10 Jordan Paroubeck; 4.11 Kent Emmanuel; 5.11 Patrick Murphy
This was a really tough draft for me to grade, as I literally knew nothing about any of these guys. So all my information was gleaned on a quick glance while preparing this report, which makes it incredibly volatile. Now that I’ve given my standard warning, I can get to the mildly interesting stuff. Paroubeck is apparently good friends with Barry Bonds, so as long as he only takes hitting tips and doesn’t take nutritional supplement tips, or tips on how to lie to a Congressional body, he should be a good player. I saw some video of him and read some stuff, I fell in love. If I had this information when I drafted I would have taken him somewhere in the second round. For reference I graded this as a B-, then revised to a B solely based on my adoration for the Paroubeck pick. Kent Emmanuel is a high floor pitcher out of college. The standard report applies, good command of a four pitch mix, nothing is flashes plus, but the repertoire works well together and he looks like a 4th or 5th starter. Patrick Murphy is one of the injured pitchers the Blue Jays signed. Clearly the Blue Jays think injured pitchers are a market inefficiency, so good for them. Murphy has some pretty good upside and to grab him as late as he did could be a real coup, or he could never recover and Bob wasted the ever valuable fifth round pick on him. I like the mix of low floor and high upside that Bob attacked here. He traded away his top picks, but might have found a trio of players who fell farther than they should have. A very good draft. Again, if you only were to grade him on the overall talent he got, this grade might be a C, but when put in the context of where these players were selected the grade must be higher.
B Royals – 1.9 Kohl Stewart; 1.25 Tyler Danish, 4.15 Jorge Mateo 4.28 Billy Burns
This grade makes me visibly angry. I hate complimenting Black Kevin, he compliments himself enough. But he had a pretty solid draft. I went on record that if I had the third pick, I might have chosen Stewart over Appel. I really like him. To me this was the best pick in the first round, and it wasn’t particularly close. The Tyler Danish pick was a bit early, as I don’t think he’s a starter and I question the value of selecting a HS kid who is going to end up in the bullpen, you will wait a long time and there’s a better than decent chance he doesn’t make it and you don’t have the upside to offset the risk. However, I said the same thing about Alex Wood and their motions are slightly similar (although Danish landing point isn’t as stupid looking as Wood’s is). At first I really like the Mateo pick, but then I thought more about it. He didn’t really do anything spectacular besides steal bags against overmatched catchers, big deal. I haven’t heard enough reports on his defense, but his offense is unspectacular at best. Finally, there are a number of MI prospects ahead of Mateo either in terms of upside or development (many of them are at the same age range as Mateo). Now maybe Mateo is the best of them, but I tend to not think so. It’s a decent pick when put in perspective of where it was made but it’s not a game changer (as I thought when I started this recap). Billy Burns can run and Black Kevin thinks he’s the shit. He lit the world on fire for a week in spring, but so did Ryan Raburn. If Burns can hit, he will be a huge force in fantasy, I’m just not sure a guy who prefers to use broken or dented wood bats can be successful in the majors.
B+ Braves – 1.6 Clint Frazier; 1.10 Hunter Harvey; 1.13 Braden Shipley; 1.28 Edwin Diaz; 1.36 Adalberto Mejia; 2.6 Jon Denney; 2.13 Amed Rosario; 2.28 Victor Caratini; 2.29 Luis Severino; 3.23 Shae Simmons; 4.13 Michael Ohlman; 4.26 Cord Sandberg
Unfortunately while I received some praise for my draft, to me my draft represents the players and things I was unable to do. I wanted to get a top 2 pick, but wasn’t able to pull the trigger on any of the deals, although I was close on one deal. Also, I tried to get back into the draft in the fifth round to grab a player I really liked, but was unable to pick up the extra pick I so desired. Also I should have traded my fourth round pick for Michael Feliz, I should have taken Jose Martinez over Luis Severino, and I should have been more prepared for my last pick (hopefully Cord Sandberg proves me wrong). I also was disappointed that Alex Reyes and Lewis Thorpe weren’t there for me at 28 and I panic picked Edwin Diaz. To me my favorite picks are 2.13 Amed Rosario and 2.28 Victor Caratini. I pray that Denney and Caratini don’t play C ever again and their respective teams move them through the system as quickly as possible. The reason I gave myself the B+ was because I got Frazier at 6, when I thought he was one of the four best players available to start the draft, I got Shipley at 13, when he was the 5th best pitcher (and arguably 8th best player available), and I got Harvey who might be as good as Stewart (and I’m still trying to figure out why he fell so far in the Rule 4 draft). Also, I reiterate Fuck Jon Denney, for the purposes of my fantasy team I hope he rakes, but he seems like a giant douche bag and if he doesn’t mature I hope he fails and ends up telling stories of his glory years in HS at the local Oregon bar (scratch that, Oregon is too awesome of a state, I want him in NJ).
P.S. I hate grading myself. I think I did really well in the draft, but I am aware that it’s conceited to give myself this good of a grade, whilst basically trashing everyone else. I tried to talk to people in the league and gauge their thoughts of my draft, and finally I said fuck it I’m awesome.
B+ Mariners 1.2 Jon Gray; 1.11 Reimel Tapia; 1.27 Alex Reyes; 2.11 Francisco Mejia; 2.12 Devin Williams; 5.2 Rafael Devers; 5.13 Teoscar Hernandez
As you can expect this is going to be another case where I drool over the Mariners and Mike’s abilities at constructing his roster. He didn’t get the A grade, because I think he overdrafted Tapia, which he acknowledged. However, he tried to fit himself to the pick better and it didn’t work out, in that case I can’t fault a GM for taking the player he likes. For what its worth, I now own Tapia stock in another league and am intrigued by Sickels comment that Tapia is in a similar spot as Oscar Tavares was at the same point in their careers. There’s a good chance Tapia isn’t as good as Tavares, but even if he’s close it’s worth the pick. Obviously the Jon Gray pick is good, and did represent a bit of a risk. Most people are concerned with him pitching in Coors, but to me he’s the second best player in this class and as a result Mike made the right call. I was ok when the Reds took Lewis Thorpe in the first, because I figured I’d have a shot at Alex Reyes, still. When Mike took him I was ready to throw a serious hissy fit, and I considered calling Ty to see if I could excommunicate Mike for his transgression (believe it or not Ty gets lots of these calls, poor guy), needless to say I think highly of that pick. I don’t like the Devin Williams pick, for the same reasons I don’t like a number of picks in this draft, the wrong MLB team drafted him, it’s an unfair prejudice (redundant?), but such is life. Mike also took three lottery tickets in Mejia, Devers, and Teoscar (I use his first name because it’s way cooler), if any of those pan out, this draft might produce more talent than any other. Of all the International FA, I liked Devers the most probably, but when comparing 16-17 year old kids I tend to move toward the safer bets to actually hit, Devers to me fits that mold.
I also will not congratulate you on a draft based solely on draft position. The example is the Giants, while they got two great prospects, they didn’t really work for those picks. I value a pick that nets a player who should have been drafted much earlier than he was, because that represents a better value. Picking Bryant 1.1 represents no value because he was clearly the best player in the draft. As a result the grades won’t correspond to which teams drafted the best players, it will more closely align with which team I think received the most value out of their draft position. To me that’s a more meaningful exercise. It’s not difficult to look at the Giants and congratulate them on two of the best players available.
Because of the nature of this task I will probably be able to include more information on teams that didn’t make a lot of picks, because I can more easily look up 3-4 players than I can write up 10 players. Unfortunately, my knowledge base on prospects isn’t extensive enough to be familiar with every player drafted. It’s also important to remember that I’m an idiot and have no clue what I’m doing. So if I give you a bad grade, you probably did great. As you know this is a really difficult task to accomplish and I’m far from an expert at this sort of thing, but without further ado, here are my musings on the draft that took place seemingly 6 months ago.
Hope you got good value via trade (No players selected)
MLW (lost a pick to COL for trading away a pick twice)
NYM
Now we move on to team's that actually drafted players.
D Phillies 2.10 Karsten Whitson; 3.4 Stephen Gonzales; 3.32 Clinton Hollon; 4.10 Rob Zastryzny; 4.12 Ryan Eades
The Phillies are in the middle of a rebuild and I wasn’t a big fan of their strategy moving back in the draft. They had a top pick (10 overall) and I think they would be better suited to have made that pick. That said, he traded it to me, so I’m pretty psyched about that and it’s pretty hypocritical to criticize him for trading picks to me. Gonzales is probably the most interesting of the group of pitchers he grabbed. HS pitcher selected in 2013, he needs to throw more innings, which will happen with time. Eades is a good risk in the 4th, college pitcher with a low floor and maybe a bit of upside if the Twins can figure out how to help his stuff play up. Hollon is a huge risk. There was a tear in his UCL and I haven’t seen anything on whether it is fixed or not. He apparently has a first round arm, but the concerns with his signability and health scared some people away. A good mix of pitchers but I don’t think any of them are particularly exciting. Obviously we missed something on Whitson. He did not sign with the Nationals and thus was ineligible for the draft. Even still, it’s not a good pick. Whitson had shoulder issues that prevented him from pitching in 2013 and he took a pretty big step back between his freshman and sophomore years at UF. If Karsten Whitson had signed, I’d consider that the worst pick in the draft. I may be overrating that pick’s importance as the other players weren’t bad picks, but they also weren’t spectacular.
D Padres – Pick 1.29 Daniel Palka.
I feel for the Padres, I know they had a rash of personal things he was dealing with this offseason and I presume he wasn’t able to do his due diligence for the draft this year. White Kevin traded away most of his picks and the only one he did make was not very good. Daniel Palka was selected with pick 1.29. He was selected in the third round of the 2013 draft, so from that perspective a lot of value was lost here, unless the MLB missed on a guy pretty bad. Of course Palka is a college hitter with power and should move quickly, but I doubt he has the tools necessary to be a force in the lineup. Given the players he could have taken here this is one of the worst picks in the draft. I’ve also seen him go in a couple other leagues and there’s a non-zero amount of noise about him elsewhere, so White Kevin is not alone in his praise of Palka. White Kevin’s team is in good position otherwise, so who cares. I think what strikes me most about this is Palka reminds me of a pick I made 3-4 years ago, Rick Poythresss. Poythress was a big college 1B from the SEC with power and supposedly very polished. That pick was doomed from the beginning, and that’s certainly affected my thinking on Palka.
C- Dodgers Every other player drafted that I didn’t list
165 players were drafted in this draft. The Dodgers took 13.9% of those players, which is quite impressive. The Dodgers fixed a glaring need on their team, prospect depth. But at what cost. They seemed to give up a lot of value to acquire all those picks, and while I don’t’ normally concern myself with value gained or lost in trades, when evaluating a draft, in this case I think it bears mentioning. Besides that, there were a number of picks that made no sense by the Dodgers. Michael Fish shouldn’t have been drafted, sure his numbers are pretty, but he’s a college senior who destroyed short-season ball. On average he was 3-4 years older than his “peers.” I like the McKinney and Tellez picks. There’s also assorted other talent. Part of the problem for me is that the Dodgers made so many picks, it’s difficult to arrive at a final tally of how many were good picks and how many weren’t good. He took a number of prospects who are just barely old enough to drive, and while that’s not a bad strategy I think he took most of them too early in the draft. For example Rafael Devers was taken in the fifth round, and he was one of the top rated IFAs (in juxtaposition, the Nationals took Eloy Jimenez, he of the 2.3M bonus, in the second round, but I’ll get to that later). Since Devers was considered by most the third best International signing, if you draft a different 16-17 year old a round or two ahead of him, I am of the opinion you reached. Hopefully at least one of these guys actually makes it stateside and makes some noise. I’d be curious to see some statistics on how many of the top 20 International FA in a given year ever make it to full season ball, not even the majors just full season minor league ball. I drafted Nick Ciuffo in another league so I can’t bash it too much, but the danger of HS catchers is well known. Luckily Nick has the time to wait it out as his window is pretty far in the future. But he’s now got a very deep roster of minor leaguers from which to rely on. Let’s see if the shotgun approach works.
C Tigers - 2.31 Hunter Green; 4.14 Mark Sappington; 5.6 Danny Santana
In terms of value I probably can’t fault the Dingo for taking Hunter Green at the end of the second, but he doesn’t excite me at all as a prospect, as a color I think he’s fantastic (particularly when mixed with gold). I am of the belief that the Angels are incapable of developing pitching, and as a result I will discount both Green and Sappington. It’s possible they prove me wrong, but neither of these two scare me. I like Danny Santana in the fifth, looks like a solid MI prospect. Probably ends up as a utility man, but maybe he turns into a second division starter. And as Black Kevin has mentioned ad nauseum, if you are getting ABs in this league you need to be owned.
C Cardinals 1.34 Jonathan Crawford; 2.2 Christian Arroyo; 2.27 Jason Hursh; 4.1 Josh Hart; 5.23 Cody Reed; 5.27 Andrew Church
This draft answers the question what happens when you just draft the highest player picked in the Rule 4 draft, when the draft pool is considerably larger than just those players. Most of these picks are borderline defensible, but I wouldn’t actually make any of these picks. Crawford and Arroyo were both first round picks, so they have talent. I have also seen some good reports on Church. I sure hope one of these guys pan out reasonably well, for the Cardinals sake. Luckily I think we have a GM here for a while who can erase any problems this draft causes. Really all these guys have talent, they also all have holes, which is why they were available, but still.
C Nationals – 1.22 Edwin Escobar; 1.32 Jimmy Nelson; 2.23 Eloy Jimenez; 4.4 Reymin Guduan; 4.6 Gleybar Torres; 5.14 Michael Taylor
I’ll start with Eloy Jimenez. Maybe Cork really liked him, but to take a 16-17 year old that early is a mistake in my opinion and since I’m ranking things I get to dock his grade for that. You needn’t look further than his other draft pick Gleyber Torres for evidence of this. Torres was drafted approximately 50 picks after Jimenez and Torres was the 2nd best International FA. I don’t think there’s that much difference in value between the two and based on the signing bonus each received, apparently the Cubs agree. That said I was a big fan of Escobar and Nelson. Nelson is the best bet of any player in this draft to provide a lot of fantasy value in 2014. I liked Escobar and was hoping I could grab him late in the first, but c’est la vie. Michael Taylor has been floundering in AAA for a couple of years now, he had a good spring, and maybe he’ll get a decent shot at some playing time. He isn’t an impact player but he could be a good bench bat. I was able to find no information on Reymin Guduan outside of his b-r.com page, which isn’t that illuminating.
C+ Red Sox – Pick 3.18 – Joan Gregorio; Pick 4.26 – Ty Blach
The Red Sox traded away most of their picks, grabbing a couple of pitchers late in the draft. Joan Gregorio is a giant (literally he plays for the Giants and he’s 6ft 7) and has big stuff. He’s been able to limit walks nicely and strikeout a good number. I tend to think he is a bullpen arm in the long run, with basically no justification for that position besides a gut feeling. Ty Blach is a college pitcher with a low floor. His ceiling is probably a 4th or 5th starter. If a franchise can develop such a player it’s the Giants, who have a good track record developing pitchers.
C+ Rockies 1.20 Trey Ball; 2.20 Michael Lorenzen; 3.19 Manuel Margot; 3.20 Jake Johansen; 4.20 Riley Unroe; 5.20 Jeremy Kivel
Riley Unroe was a supplemental pick and Kyle got him in the fourth round, that’s the epitome of taking what the draft gives you. Now I’m not sure if Riley Unroe is going to be any good, but it was still a decent pick. Manuel Margot has tremendous upside and a broad base of skills to build on. Trey Ball is the hardest for me to grade. I don’t like two-way pros, I think it takes too long for them to develop (see Casey Kelly). I also think he is a pitcher and should focus there, any time he spends not pitching is time wasted. But those things aside, he’s got good upside. Michael Lorenzen is another college pitcher that the Reds love, and I was at least a moderate fan of.
C+ Marlins 1.21 Ryne Stanek; 2.9 Ian Clarkin; 3.8 Aaron Blair; 4.9 Andrew Thurman; 5.9 Trevor Williams
The Marlins grabbed 5 pitchers with their five picks. I didn’t like Ryne Stanek, but he made sense where he was drafted. I am a big fan of Ian Clarkin and Aaron Blair and think they are very good picks. I know literally nothing about the other two.
C+ As 1.4 Colin Moran; 2.4 Austin Wilson; 3.3 Brandon Dixon; 4.25 Kean Wong; 4.29Daniel Slania; 5.4 Buck Farmer
So I think I either called or texted Ty with glee when I saw the As took Colin Moran, because I knew it guaranteed me one of Clint Frazier or Kohl Stewart, which was my dream scenario. Generally, it’s not good when the teams drafting after you are happy when you announce your pick (maybe I’m wrong and not everyone else was happy that Moran was taken at four, the Marlins took him at 6, so it’s not crazy to think he’s the fourth best hitter in the draft). Now that doesn’t mean Bird made a bad pick, it’s just that he went against what I think the consensus was. Hopefully, for him, he’ll be vindicated, but until then his draft grade will suffer. I like Austin Wilson a fair amount. I think the Mariners are a bad organization for him, because they seem to have trouble developing hitters with patience. He needs a bit of work, but in terms of power/speed combo not many can top Wilson. Kean Wong is the younger brother of Kolten Wong of Cardinals fame. He is bigger and stronger, but not as fast. He’ll probably be a utility infielder long term, especially if he shows the ability to play up the middle, but he’s a long ways off and any projections are really tough. I have no clue who Dixon, or Slania are, and their b-r.com don’t excite me, although neither has enough of a reputation to make any real conclusions. I really liked the Fuck Barmer pick. Hehehe.
C+ Cubs – 1.35 Eric Jagielo; 2.25 Chris Taylor; 5.12 Josh Zeid; 5.21 Reydel Medina; 5.25 Ronny Rodriguez; 5.29 Jacob Scavusso; 5.30 Jordan Patterson
The Cubs took their dentist’s son’s cousin or something. I’m pretty sure that Scott was offered some sort of discount on his next cavity search and got confused by the phrasing (hint, it’s not the kind of cavity search you like). Anyways, Eric Jagielo is a 3B, the Yankees 3B is an idiot, suspended, and 40ish, I’m not a mathematician but it seems the Yankees wanted a college hitter who could play 3B soon. Jagielo fits that mold and is solid if unspectacular. I don’t think Jagielo ever hits enough and thus I didn’t have a first round grade on him, while he did fall to the supplemental round, I still thought it was early for him. Chris Taylor is a good MI prospect, but in a crowded system with an even murkier outlook on the ML team, I’m not sure where he fits long term. The Cubs opted for some long shots at the end of the draft, of which two bear mentioning. Scavusso raked in the Pioneer league last year, but the Pioneer League is akin to moon mode on Triple Play 1999. Still he’s an interesting prospect and has been getting a fair amount of pub this offseason, wouldn’t be a bad idea to bet on him as a breakout candidate. Ronny Rodriguez is a MI prospect who keeps getting past by other MI prospects in the Indians system, but has the tools to be a solid starter at 2B.
C+ Reds – 1.24 Lewis Thorpe; 2.24 Robbie Ray; 3.2 Tim Cooney; 4.33 Aaron West; 5.18 Jeremy Jeffress; 5.34 Sicnarf Loopstok
As I might have mentioned I kind of wanted Lewis Thorpe. I thought he’d fall to the end of the first, but even at 24 I think this was a really good pick. There’s a lot of risk with Thorpe, he’s an unknown quantity in that he’s Australian, but LHP who throw gas are generally valuable. I wish I could keep track of how many people have owned Jeffress in this league, I know the Mets, Red Sox, and I have all owned him at various times. Hard to believe he isn’t at 50 IP yet. What a waste of talent, sorry to digress /soapbox. The Reds won the draft in that they grabbed the minor league player name of the year winner. While I disagree with the decision that he has the best minor league name, I will respect the award. I have no clue what I think about Robbie Ray. I think I might like him, but something in my gut tells my brain to STFU (pretty useless comment, but if you were coming here for thoughtful analysis that’s your fault). Tim Cooney had a pretty successful season in AA and he’s LH, so he’s got that going for him. Reports on velocity are scarce and varied, but he is allergic to giving up HR and has pretty damn good control, so worst case he’s a LOOGY. John Sickels labeled West as a sleeper last year, it didn’t work out great, but there’s at least some reason to think he can be a good pitcher. Without truly understanding the problem he probably needs to work on his command as he’s a bit too hittable at this point. As much as I like the Thorpe picks, the rest of the lot is very forgettable and that’s why the grade is a bit lower.
B- Orioles 1.14 Dominic Smith; 1.31 Ryan McMahon; 1.33 Tim Anderson; 3.26 Jacob May; 4.27 Abiatel Avelino
So I own Dominic Smith in another league, so maybe it’s my fondness for self-deprecation, but I’m not a fan of him. I question his ability to hit for enough power to justify his position. He didn’t look as advanced as he was supposed to be in his short sample either. I think there was a fair amount of value lost with that pick. For what it’s worth I grabbed him 10th in a draft, which took place in July, of only players taken in the 2013 Rule 4 draft. I was fine with the pick then, but as time has passed I have decided I was an idiot (which happens a lot). I also don’t like Tim Anderson, but I can’t really fault Patrick for taking him at 33. Ryan McMahon at 31 represents a fair amount of value. He’s a pretty intriguing bat and I think he will develop now that he can stop with that football foolishness. Patrick basically alternated picks that I like with those that I don’t like, I don’t like the May pick because he’s a White Sox prospect which means he won’t develop (LOGIC FTW!), and I like Avelino because he’s a SS who can pick it. While we don’t reward good defense (much to my disdain) good defense gives you more chances to prove you can hit and might even give you a ML job, which means COUNTING STATS! He’s a ways off but for a fifth round pick you can do worse.
B-Blue Jays – 1.18 Sean Manaea; 3.27 Kevin Siegrist; 3.28 Daniel Webb; 4.16 Chia-Jen Lo; 4.17 Brian Flynn
So if you haven’t noticed the Blue Jays have one of the best farm systems in this league, they are also on the short list of legitimate title contenders. Needless to say the Blue Jays have a lot going their way. I was a little disappointed with this draft, but to be fair I see exactly what the BJs wanted to do here. They grabbed an elite talent in Manaea, and then used their mid round and late round picks to grab relievers that will be really cheap. Manaea was supposedly a top 15 pick or something, but then had injury concerns. While a hip isn’t an arm injury, it’s not something I brush off. If a hip injury can end Bo Jackson’s career I assume Sean Manaea is dead (although he is Samoan, so maybe he’ll survive). Yes I realize the injury isn’t even close to the same, I’m being hilarious again. As to the relievers, Siegrist is in a crowded and ridiculously talented Cardinals pen, and who knows how much he’ll be used, although he did throw 40 innings last year, and if he does that again with starting the year on the roster, he’ll be valuable). Webb is a potential closer and was one of the better picks in the draft, he was actually a guy I was going to grab (I probably should have taken him instead of Shae Simmons). Chia-Jen Lo closed a bit last year and was horrible, but SSS applies. Brian Flynn was grabbed late. I’m not sure what to think of him. He has good stuff, but struggles to dominate. He is probably a 4th starter. Jordan clearly wanted to grab as many assets that he could employ this year towards a championship run, Flynn fit that and so do the trio of relievers. It was a solid but boring draft. This grade bumps up a full letter grade if Webb actually closes on a consistent basis.
B- Diamondbacks Pick 1.12 Hunter Dozier; 2.19 Aaron Judge
I don’t like Hunter Dozier where he was drafted. I thought he fit better in the mid to late teens, and for that I will dock the Dbacks. He has a highish floor, but I worry about his ability to make contact. I think he will probably struggle against breaking pitches at higher levels. He was fantastic in his pro debut, so maybe I’m wrong. Tyler must hope that he can maintain his walk rate as he climbs the ladder. The reason the Dbacks get a B-, is because I love Aaron Judge. I wanted to pick him, but didn’t. I don’t know if he can be Giancarlo Stanton, but he’s as close of a physical comp as I’ve seen in terms of size and athleticism (I don’t think he has Stanton’s offensive ceiling, but few do). Thought he would go before Jagielo in our draft. He has really good athleticism for his size (or most other sizes) and while in-game power is lacking thus far, his raw power is off the charts.
B- Twins – 1.26 JP Crawford; 2.22 Dylan Cozens; 2.26 Chace Sisco; 3.25 Emerson Jimenez; 4.2 Dustin Peterson; 5.26 Akeem Bostick
We all know Mike is a jerk and won’t trade me players I want even when I am being completely reasonable. So I’m going to use this as time to show why I’m better than him. He took Chance Sisco, I took Michael Ohlman. Ohlman is better and was drafted 2 rounds later. He drafted Emerson Jimenez, I presume because I already has Rosell Herrera. Nana Nana Boo Boo. Seriously though, I liked Mike’s draft, which isn’t surprising as he is always well prepared. I liked JP Crawford, who I think was a victim of being so overrated early on that he became underrated. I think he projects well as an up the middle player, the comparisons to his cousin are apparent with his moderate power and great speed. Dylan Cozens is a big risk/reward pick. He is gigantic and if he makes contact it goes a long ways. The track records with such players is really poor though, and I’m not crazy about him. I am really interested in Dustin Peterson. He apparently has more defensive chops, even though he won’t stick as SS, which puts less pressure on his bat making it easier for him to make the majors. He has a good swing, I think he’s got a good chance as a MI, and given he was a fourth round pick that’s great value. Akeem Bostick is a Rangers pitcher who is really young and has all those things you like in a young kid, projectable body, good fastball blah blah blah.
B- Yankees – Picks 1.8 – DJ Peterson; Pick 2.8 Kevin Ziomek
I liked the Yankees draft a fair amount. To me outside of Kris Bryant, Peterson was the best college bat available, although Ervin is rising in my mind and its close between those two (ultimately I like Peterson’s bat better, I like all the other stuff Ervin can do and overall he’s the better prospect). The Yankees certainly could have taken a player with a bit more upside at 8, but knowing Matt that’s not his style. He wants to win and doesn’t want to wait for an 18y old HS kid to develop. I don’t know a lot about Ziomek, but from what I’ve read he seems to have a very low floor. He has a good fastball, although it’s a bit straight. Again a good college pitcher who should move quickly and has a solid floor. Plus he’s left handed, so he’ll have endless chances to prove he can be useful.
B-Giants – 1.1 Kris Bryant; 1.3 Mark Appel
I really want to rate this draft lower than a B- because neither pick was impressive, the draft slot was impressive. But at the end of the day the Giants got two elite prospects and that’s a good day. Kris Bryant is the truth, and while I question Mark Appel’s upside I still think he will be incredibly valuable, although admittedly I would have traded the third pick, because I know I would have had to pick Appel and I’d rather have other players. I’m sure this grade will upset the most people, but I hate reading draft reviews where they give the highest grade to the teams that draft the highest, because it’s not a representation of the value received in the draft. If I were to grade each team by how much talent they got in the draft, the Giants would probably be an A- (getting the minus distinction only because of the lack of depth in their draft). This isn’t a slight against the Giants, they literally couldn’t have received a higher grade than this in my opinion with this set of picks. Adkins did a perfect job of drafting.
B- Indians – 1.17 Reese McGuire; 2.17 Teddy Stankiewicz; 2.21 Tyler ONeill; 3.16 Drew Ward; 5.17 Jose Herrera
The most interesting thing I learned this year about a prospect is that Teddy Stankiewicz doesn’t have a pectoral muscle. I can’t figure out if that’s weirder than R.A. Dickey not having a UCL or not, but it’s pretty fucking odd. I have no clue what that means for his long term prospects, he’s been able to get to this point without a pectoral muscle why should he need one going forward. Reese McGuire was probably the best HS catcher available in this draft and the Indians took him early. I have mentioned numerous times I’m not a fan of HS catchers, because it takes forever for them to develop. I think it was a bit early for McGuire but reasonable minds can disagree, as he should be ready faster than the other catchers taken. I also think offensively he profiles better than Ciuffo, although not quite as good as Denney (but Denney probably isn’t a catcher so it’s not a fair comparison). I was a big fan of Tyler O’Neill, and if the comps to fellow Canuck Brett Lawrie hold true the Indians will be really happy. Drew Ward has some serious power and is a big dude with enough athleticism to make him an intriguing player. He’s definitely a guy to watch, I loved what he did in the GCL, but SSS applies. I’m guessing the Jose Herrera he drafted is the Angels 3B prospect, maybe he turns into something valuable but it seems like there were better choices than a 20 year old who was pretty horrible in the Dominican Summer League, but I’m not going to knock any pick in the fifth round too hard, it’s a crap shoot and you pull the trigger on the guy you like.
B White Sox – 1.5 Philip Ervin; 2.5 Travis Demeritte; 3.17 Steven Souza; 3.33 Oscar Mercado; 4.5 Ryon Healy; 4.18 Kyle Crocket; 5.5 Cole Wiper 5.24 Ivan Wilson
Graham brought some knowledge from how the High Heat draft played out and decided that he couldn’t wait on Ervin and took him fifth. I think that’s a bit early and I don’t see the upside some other people do in Ervin, but he has a good power/speed thing going for him. There’s a big difference between a guy who hits 10HR and steal 15 bags and a 20/20 guy. If he’s the first guy, this is a bad pick. If he’s the second it’s a great pick. I’m not sure yet, he did crush his debut though so maybe he’s a 20/20 threat. Travis Demeritte has all the tools and unlike most Rangers prospects, Travis is aware of the existence of the concept of a strikezone. If he develops some power and stays up the middle he’s another great pick. I don’t see a lot in Mercado, as he looks to be more glove than bat, but if he is a starter in MLB, he is valuable. Steven Souza is already up to the ML level with the Nationals, mostly due to Zimmerman’s injury. We’ll see how he comports himself.
B Angels – 1.23 Hunter Renfroe; 1.30 Chris Anderson; 4.32 Jacoby Jones
With only three picks, the Angels made out pretty well. This is John’s first go at running a club in our league, but he’s been following the Barnstormers and assisting there. I know he was really excited to actually participate in the draft this year (much disagreement between father and son in regards to the usefulness of actually keeping draft picks). To me this was a perfectly average draft class. John didn’t fuck things up by over-thinking. He took Renfroe when he fell to him, he traded to get back into the first to grab a pitcher that I think has a very low floor and a higher ceiling than he’s being given credit for, and grabbed a toolsy MI prospect in the fourth round. . There’s some players I personally like better than Renfroe at 23, but he definitely fit in that area. Chris Anderson is a guy I really liked because I think he is undervalued. I like his pitch mix and his size. I think he has #2 potential but he probably settles into a #3 role. Honestly, he reminds me of regular season Jon Lester (not post-season Jon Lester, who is clearly a different pitcher). Worst case he has a big fastball and profiles as a late inning reliever, but I think his body lends itself to throwing 200 innings a year (as much a pitcher can do that in modern baseball) Jacoby Jones is a great returner and a decent #2 WR. I like his ability to stretch the field and allow the TEs room to roam in the middle. Good value, but not as good in a baseball league.
B Astros 1.7 Austin Meadows, 2.7 Severino Gonzalez; 3.6 Mac Williamson; 4.3 Raul Alcantara; 4.7 Alex Yarbrough; 4.8 Zack Jones; 5.7 Chase DeJong
So it shouldn’t surprise a lot of people that Ty and I talk a lot about baseball. One of the topics was whether I would take Frazier or Meadows if they both fell to me. Ty, if I remember correctly, seemed a bit incredulous in response to my query. He felt Frazier was significantly the better prospect, I assume given his HR potential. Ultimately, that’s what swayed me as well. I think Frazier ceiling is too tantalizing. But I very well might regret taking him over Meadows and wonder if John would have taken Frazier in my spot (or to put it another way, would he trade Meadows for Frazier straight up). I really like Severino Gonzalez, I think he was the best Severino in this draft, mostly because I think he has a clear spot in the Phillies rotation in 2015 and should excel as a #3-4. Raul Alcantara is another mid rotation starter, this time in the Athletics system. I’m not crazy about him as he doesn’t miss enough bats, but so long as he limits walks and generates ground balls he might be a solid innings eater. Mac Williamson has great power and a great amount of swing and miss going on. He did great in the CAL league, but that’s not difficult to do and he was a bit old. To me there’s more noise regarding him than his status deserves, but he’s still a solid prospect.
B- Rangers 1.19 Marco Gonzalez; 2.3 Rob Kaminsky; 2.30 Jose Martinez; 3.5 Justin Williams; 3.7 Ben Lively; 3.9 Corey Knebel; 3.22 Daniel Fields; 4.21 Dawel Lugo; 5.3 Wendell Rijo; 5.16 Fernando Romero; 5.22 Sergio Alcantara
I’m not crazy about Marco Gonzalez or Rob Kaminsky as players. However, they get a bit of a bump because it seems lately whatever the Cardinals draft turns to gold. I really liked Jose Martinez and was disappointed to see him go. Justin Williams is a guy overlooked and then later in the draft wanted to get, and was really disappointed he was gone. He’s a big dude who displayed good contact in his debut, if he can tap into his raw power in games, he’ll be a highly regarded prospect, especially If he can stick in the OF. Ben Lively was one of my favorite college arms in the draft, based on where I thought he’d go in the draft, which was right about where he was picked. I really like his stuff and think he is going to surprise some people this year. The Rangers took some fliers late in the draft, most notably Dawel Lugo. He has talent for days and had a pretty impressive debut statistically, but he has serious strike zone issues that will need to be cleared up if he’s going to be successful moving forward. He’s one of the players that was heavily touted this offseason. In a couple of years we might look at this and ask how he fell to the late fourth, although I think it’s more likely we ask who the hell is Dawel Lugo.
B Pirates 1.15 Alex Gonzalez; 2.15 Bobby Wahl; 3.24 Derek Law 4.31 Yeyson Yrizarri, 5.15 Jose Virgilio Almonte; 5.33 Christian Vazquez.
If Kohl Stewart was the best pick of the draft, Christian Vazquez with the second to last pick of the draft is the second best pick. Make no mistake Christian Vazquez isn’t going to be an offensive juggernaut, nor is he likely to be a top 10 player at his position. But given where he was drafted and the likelihood that he carves out a niche as, at worst, a backup catcher and his offensive skillset, I love this pick. I was also really big on Alex Gonzalez and Bobby Wahl, both were very good picks. It might have been a bit early for the man they call Chi Chi, but I think it was warranted. Derek Law looks like a good bet to be a middle reliever, so I’m not crazy about that pick, given where it was made. However, if he can become a late inning guy or a closer it will look a lot better. I know nothing else about the other two players, except Yrizarri is a MI in the Rangers system, which given past results means he’ll be a top 100 prospect in a few years. Overall a very solid draft.
B Rays 3.10 Jordan Paroubeck; 4.11 Kent Emmanuel; 5.11 Patrick Murphy
This was a really tough draft for me to grade, as I literally knew nothing about any of these guys. So all my information was gleaned on a quick glance while preparing this report, which makes it incredibly volatile. Now that I’ve given my standard warning, I can get to the mildly interesting stuff. Paroubeck is apparently good friends with Barry Bonds, so as long as he only takes hitting tips and doesn’t take nutritional supplement tips, or tips on how to lie to a Congressional body, he should be a good player. I saw some video of him and read some stuff, I fell in love. If I had this information when I drafted I would have taken him somewhere in the second round. For reference I graded this as a B-, then revised to a B solely based on my adoration for the Paroubeck pick. Kent Emmanuel is a high floor pitcher out of college. The standard report applies, good command of a four pitch mix, nothing is flashes plus, but the repertoire works well together and he looks like a 4th or 5th starter. Patrick Murphy is one of the injured pitchers the Blue Jays signed. Clearly the Blue Jays think injured pitchers are a market inefficiency, so good for them. Murphy has some pretty good upside and to grab him as late as he did could be a real coup, or he could never recover and Bob wasted the ever valuable fifth round pick on him. I like the mix of low floor and high upside that Bob attacked here. He traded away his top picks, but might have found a trio of players who fell farther than they should have. A very good draft. Again, if you only were to grade him on the overall talent he got, this grade might be a C, but when put in the context of where these players were selected the grade must be higher.
B Royals – 1.9 Kohl Stewart; 1.25 Tyler Danish, 4.15 Jorge Mateo 4.28 Billy Burns
This grade makes me visibly angry. I hate complimenting Black Kevin, he compliments himself enough. But he had a pretty solid draft. I went on record that if I had the third pick, I might have chosen Stewart over Appel. I really like him. To me this was the best pick in the first round, and it wasn’t particularly close. The Tyler Danish pick was a bit early, as I don’t think he’s a starter and I question the value of selecting a HS kid who is going to end up in the bullpen, you will wait a long time and there’s a better than decent chance he doesn’t make it and you don’t have the upside to offset the risk. However, I said the same thing about Alex Wood and their motions are slightly similar (although Danish landing point isn’t as stupid looking as Wood’s is). At first I really like the Mateo pick, but then I thought more about it. He didn’t really do anything spectacular besides steal bags against overmatched catchers, big deal. I haven’t heard enough reports on his defense, but his offense is unspectacular at best. Finally, there are a number of MI prospects ahead of Mateo either in terms of upside or development (many of them are at the same age range as Mateo). Now maybe Mateo is the best of them, but I tend to not think so. It’s a decent pick when put in perspective of where it was made but it’s not a game changer (as I thought when I started this recap). Billy Burns can run and Black Kevin thinks he’s the shit. He lit the world on fire for a week in spring, but so did Ryan Raburn. If Burns can hit, he will be a huge force in fantasy, I’m just not sure a guy who prefers to use broken or dented wood bats can be successful in the majors.
B+ Braves – 1.6 Clint Frazier; 1.10 Hunter Harvey; 1.13 Braden Shipley; 1.28 Edwin Diaz; 1.36 Adalberto Mejia; 2.6 Jon Denney; 2.13 Amed Rosario; 2.28 Victor Caratini; 2.29 Luis Severino; 3.23 Shae Simmons; 4.13 Michael Ohlman; 4.26 Cord Sandberg
Unfortunately while I received some praise for my draft, to me my draft represents the players and things I was unable to do. I wanted to get a top 2 pick, but wasn’t able to pull the trigger on any of the deals, although I was close on one deal. Also, I tried to get back into the draft in the fifth round to grab a player I really liked, but was unable to pick up the extra pick I so desired. Also I should have traded my fourth round pick for Michael Feliz, I should have taken Jose Martinez over Luis Severino, and I should have been more prepared for my last pick (hopefully Cord Sandberg proves me wrong). I also was disappointed that Alex Reyes and Lewis Thorpe weren’t there for me at 28 and I panic picked Edwin Diaz. To me my favorite picks are 2.13 Amed Rosario and 2.28 Victor Caratini. I pray that Denney and Caratini don’t play C ever again and their respective teams move them through the system as quickly as possible. The reason I gave myself the B+ was because I got Frazier at 6, when I thought he was one of the four best players available to start the draft, I got Shipley at 13, when he was the 5th best pitcher (and arguably 8th best player available), and I got Harvey who might be as good as Stewart (and I’m still trying to figure out why he fell so far in the Rule 4 draft). Also, I reiterate Fuck Jon Denney, for the purposes of my fantasy team I hope he rakes, but he seems like a giant douche bag and if he doesn’t mature I hope he fails and ends up telling stories of his glory years in HS at the local Oregon bar (scratch that, Oregon is too awesome of a state, I want him in NJ).
P.S. I hate grading myself. I think I did really well in the draft, but I am aware that it’s conceited to give myself this good of a grade, whilst basically trashing everyone else. I tried to talk to people in the league and gauge their thoughts of my draft, and finally I said fuck it I’m awesome.
B+ Mariners 1.2 Jon Gray; 1.11 Reimel Tapia; 1.27 Alex Reyes; 2.11 Francisco Mejia; 2.12 Devin Williams; 5.2 Rafael Devers; 5.13 Teoscar Hernandez
As you can expect this is going to be another case where I drool over the Mariners and Mike’s abilities at constructing his roster. He didn’t get the A grade, because I think he overdrafted Tapia, which he acknowledged. However, he tried to fit himself to the pick better and it didn’t work out, in that case I can’t fault a GM for taking the player he likes. For what its worth, I now own Tapia stock in another league and am intrigued by Sickels comment that Tapia is in a similar spot as Oscar Tavares was at the same point in their careers. There’s a good chance Tapia isn’t as good as Tavares, but even if he’s close it’s worth the pick. Obviously the Jon Gray pick is good, and did represent a bit of a risk. Most people are concerned with him pitching in Coors, but to me he’s the second best player in this class and as a result Mike made the right call. I was ok when the Reds took Lewis Thorpe in the first, because I figured I’d have a shot at Alex Reyes, still. When Mike took him I was ready to throw a serious hissy fit, and I considered calling Ty to see if I could excommunicate Mike for his transgression (believe it or not Ty gets lots of these calls, poor guy), needless to say I think highly of that pick. I don’t like the Devin Williams pick, for the same reasons I don’t like a number of picks in this draft, the wrong MLB team drafted him, it’s an unfair prejudice (redundant?), but such is life. Mike also took three lottery tickets in Mejia, Devers, and Teoscar (I use his first name because it’s way cooler), if any of those pan out, this draft might produce more talent than any other. Of all the International FA, I liked Devers the most probably, but when comparing 16-17 year old kids I tend to move toward the safer bets to actually hit, Devers to me fits that mold.
